RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
A NEW leading indicators index devised by Capital Economics that combines several factors to capture the balance of supply and demand in Australia’s housing market suggests that...
The firm’s new House Price Leading Index combines information auction clearance rates, the sales-to-new listings ratio, housing finance commitments, time on market and...
It tends to lead annual house price growth by around four months and has a much higher correlation with house price growth than any of the individual leading indicators...
House price growth in recent months has been carried by Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, with the hallmark being a severe lack of supply. Freshly-advertised housing stock...
Price growth slowed to 6.7% in September, but with prices still rising at an annualised pace of over 6% between September and June, that slowdown seems to have run its course...
For example, the widely watched data on auction clearance rates tend to predict house price growth with a lead of around three months and so does the ratio of sales to all outstanding listings...
After all, while individual leading indicators usually point in the same direction, they often tell conflicting messages about the pace of any slowdown or acceleration in...
As it takes time to finalise home sales, CoreLogic’s preliminary figures always show a sharp fall in sales over the most recent couple of months. CoreLogic is publishing model...
He said initially published modelled estimates are still biased downwards, on average underestimated actual sales figures by nearly 19% for the most recently published month and...
Since the ratio of sales to overall listings only leads house price growth by three months, that means it’s no longer a leading indicator and we aren’t including it in our Leading Index...
Thieliant said “the other troublemaker” is time on market, as data for the most recent months typically overstate how long properties have been available for sale, which relates back to...
Over the last couple of years, the initial ‘time on market’ release has overstated the actual figure by a huge 26% for the most recent month and by a still large 9% for the prior month...
The Leading Index adjusts the time on market print down by those figures, and which puts time on market data consistent with house price growth remaining little changed over the...