AFTER decent summer rainfall, 2024 has brought with it rebounded confidence in agricultural commodities in Australia’s eastern states.
According to Rural Bank, these conditions have supported price recoveries for livestock, with good production conditions for horticulture and helpful soil moisture for the coming year.
Lamb prices saw a strong beginning to 2024 and are expected to hold at current levels for the coming weeks, with domestic demand for lamb rebounding after retail prices weakened at the end of 2023.
The National Trade Lamb Indicator gained 245 cents, up 55.3%, since the middle of November 2023.
Despite the weakened price results at the close of the year, 2023 was a record year for lamb exports, exceeding the previous record set in 2022 by 14.7%.
Cattle prices are also expected to continue lifting over the next month after strong export demand and favourable seasonal conditions forecast across key regions.
Beef export volume is also likely to remain after a strong January due to increased demand from key markets.
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator returned to above 670c/kg in early February, up 92.8% from the lowest point of 2023 in mid-October.
While the Western Young Cattle Indicator recorded a modest increase of 12.7%, sitting at 463c/kg, sitting 42.7% lower than a year ago and 41.8% below than the five-year average.
National milk production is up 2% season to date year-on-year with full season production forecast at 8.2 to 8.3 billion litres.
With Australia producing 4.6 billion litres of milk at the halfway point of the season, thought this is still 4.5% below average.
Australian wool prices have softened across weekly auctions so far in 2024, after gains in December.
With the new year’s first week of auctions seeing the Eastern Market Indicator hold near its 2023 closing level at 1,213c/kg and following four weeks seeing the EMI lose 50 cents, or 4.1%.
Across horticulture, table grape quality has improved on last season, after favourable conditions in the summer months.
Reduced US production is expected to provide strong export demand from key Asian buyers.
Additionally, almond harvest is now underway and estimates are forecasting the crop at just over 164,000 tonnes, up 60% on last season.
In cropping, Victoria drove production updates to the national winter crop, with the final yield for Victoria at or above record. While ongoing rain throughout harvest led to some downgrading.
Over the first four months of the marketing season, Barley exports were at a record pace, with four million tonnes shipped between October and January.
With China accounting for 3.2 million tonnes, or 80% of the market share.
Combined wheat, barley, and canola exports were also above average in the first four months of the marketing year.
Demand is still challenged for some commodities but agricultural sector is looking far more optimistic than in late 2023.
