Commonwealth Life has finally exited the Melbourne property market by just managing to break even on a Port Melbourne office building it purchased in the mid-1990s
Your Mortgage Magazine asked our panel of Australia’s leading economists where they think the average standard variable rate charged by Australian banks of 7.07% is headed over the coming months. These predictions by no means reflect where the rates will be for the banks or the other institutions surveyed and are intended as a guide only. The predictions were made between 10 November, 2003, and 28 November, 2003, and forecasts may have changed since then. Our panel also advises borrowers on whether the time is right to lock in rates on your home loan.
Spokesperson | Institution | June 04 | Dec 04 | Words of wisdom on whether it’s too late to fix rates | ||
Kieran Davies, Chief Economist | ABN AMRO | 7.32% | é | 7.07% | n | The risk is that fixed rates will fall from where they are now |
Jim Miltiadis, General Manager Operations | AIMS Homeloans | 7.32% | é | 7.57% | é | Fixed rates should remain around current levels |
Shane Oliver, Chief Economist | AMP Henderson Global Investors | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | There is a case to consider fixing part of a loan for a year or so |
Saul Eslake, Chief Economist | ANZ Bank | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | The case for fixing now isn’t particularly compelling, except for risk-averse borrowers |
Mark Glover, Treasurer | Bank of America | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | I wouldn’t fix; if the economy slows, variable rates will fall back |
Gino Marra, Executive Director | Carter Mayfair | 7.07% | n | 7.07% | n | Clients that pay extra on mortgages are always better on variable loans |
Annette Beacher, Senior Economist | Citigroup Global Markets | 7.35% | é | 7.35% | é | Over-fixing ahead of anticipating substantial increases in rates could be unwarranted |
Rob Emmett, Managing Director | Collins Securities | 7.07% | n | 7.07% | n | It is probably too late. The best fixed rates were available 6 months ago. |
Warren Hogan, Chief Economist | Credit Suisse First Boston | 7.32% | é | 7.07% | n | Fixed rates will drift higher over the next few months, before heading lower through 2004 |
Simon Tennent, Chief Economist | HIA | 7.32% | é | 7.57% | é | Now is the time to be fixing the full amount or a portion for 5 years |
John McGee, Chief Operating Officer | Homeloans Ltd | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | I believe it’s too late to fix – expected rate rises are factored into current fixed rates |
Anthony Thompson, Senior Economist | HSBC | 7.57% | é | 7.57% | é | Borrowers may have ‘missed the boat’ to lock in a fixed rate on their mortgage |
Glenn Baker, Treasurer | ING Bank | 7.32% | é | 7.57% | é | The best time has probably passed, but there remains limited opportunity to fix |
Bent Peterson, General Manager Risk | Liberty Financial | 7.32% | é | 7.82% | é | There doesn’t appear to be a lot of benefit for borrowers in fixing rates |
Tony Gill, Executive Director | Macquarie Bank | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | No comment |
Ken Sayer, Managing Director | Mortgage House of Australia | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | It’s too late to fix. Rate increases are already factored into fixed rates |
Mark Cheng, Head of Treasury | Overseas Union Bank | 7.32% | é | 7.57% | é | Rather stay variable from here |
Nicholas Gruen, CEO | Peach Home Loans | 7.32% | é | 7.57% | é | People should still fix at under 7% if they feel a 1% rise in rates would be scary |
Glenn Maguire, Chief Economist | SG Australia | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | We don’t expect the rise in variable rates to overtake current fixed rates |
Tim Crawford, Senior Economist | St George Bank | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | Consider a split fixed-variable loan given some uncertainty about the rate outlook |
Scott Haslem, Senior Economist | UBS | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | No comment |
Bill Evans, Chief Economist | Westpac | 7.32% | é | 7.32% | é | Expect some more upward pressure on fixed rates |
Lee Boueri, Managing Director | Yes Home Loans | 7.47% | é | 6.97% | â | Splitting and fixing a portion we still consider to be the best strategy |
